Five things we still don't know about North Korea's Nuclear Weapons Capabilities [VIDEO]
09:03
Washington (CNN)
-- The surprise disclosure of an intelligence assessment about North
Korea's nuclear capabilities this week raised further questions over
what the United States believes the communist nation is capable of, and
has kept the U.S., the Korean peninsula and the rest of the world on
edge, worried about the possibility of an imminent missile launch. At a House Armed
Services Committee hearing on Thursday, Rep. Doug Lamborn, R-Colorado,
read from a declassified version of a document in which the Defense
Intelligence Agency expresses "moderate confidence the North currently
has nuclear weapons capable of delivery by ballistic missiles, however,
the reliability will be low." But James R. Clapper,
director of U.S. national intelligence, quickly shot that assessment
down. "North Korea has not yet demonstrated the full range of
capabilities necessary for a nuclear-armed missile." Still, many issues about
North Korea's nuclear capabilities remain unclear as U.S. officials
prepare for a potential missile launch by Pyongyang that they say could
come at any time. Here is a look at a few of those questions: 1. Does North Korea have nuclear weapons? Likely. North Korea
conducted its first underground test of a nuclear weapon in 2006, as
well as two other tests, with the most recent coming in February of this
year. Others believe the communist nation is assumed to have already
separated enough plutonium for up to 10 warheads. It is unclear,
however, if they have developed a way to weaponize or effectively
deliver them. A U.S. official who briefed reporters in Seoul said that
North Korea "has demonstrated at least three times now that they can
detonate a nuclear weapon." Still, with fewer than 10 functional nuclear
devices -- compared to the more than 7,650 warheads in the U.S. arsenal
-- the tiny nation is at the dangerous infancy of becoming a nuclear
state. 2. Has the nuclear device been miniaturized enough to fit atop a missile? Unclear. Taking a basic
nuclear weapon and shrinking it down so it can fit on top of a missile
is quite difficult. Many experts have suspected the North Koreans have
been working feverishly to do just that, but their success has not been
confirmed. Said the same U.S. official: "miniaturizing a weapon is a
very, very difficult task." Secretary of State John Kerry, responding to
the initial DIA assessment, said that "it is inaccurate to suggest that
the DPRK has fully tested, developed or demonstrated capabilities that
are articulated in that report." 3. Do they have missiles sophisticated enough to deliver a nuclear warhead? Possibly. The North
Koreans are believed to have a host of rockets or missiles, either
deployed or in development, that many believe capable of carrying a
potential conventional, chemical or nuclear warhead. Their long-range
and unconfirmed UNHA 3 rocket has never been tested as a missile, but,
with a suspected range of 6,200 miles (10,000 km), it could possibly
reach parts of the western United States. Their intermediate-range
TAEPODONG 1 and TAEPODONG X rocket could cover Japan, parts of Russia
and Central Asia and some U.S. bases in the Pacific. And their
short-range SCUD-D, with a range of about 435 miles (700 km), would be a
threat to South Korea, Japan and China. However, experts say their
guidance systems are primitive and their propulsion systems are
unstable. But the U.S. official said they have capabilities. "They have
demonstrated that they can launch a three-stage missile. We believe they
are continuing to develop putting a nuclear warhead on top of an
intercontinental ballistic missile or intermediate-range ballistic
missile," the official said. "I think it's premature to say they've been
able to put everything together, from development of a warhead,
launching it, getting it to re-enter and actually target something. I
think that's a little premature to say right now." 4. If North Korea launches a missile, how will we know if it is carrying a nuclear warhead? Basically, we won't.
While U.S. officials said there is "nothing to indicate" that North
Korea can or will place a nuclear warhead atop a missile right now, most
experts say it is very difficult to know the warhead and payload of a
missile test in advance. That raises the heightened concern that,
despite public U.S. proclamations that they would be hesitant to shoot
down a North Korean missile launched over the ocean unless it appeared
to be heading toward a known land-based target, such a shoot-down is
still possible. 5. Why is it so hard to know full details of North Korea's nuclear program? The highly secretive
nation -- led by the young, reclusive Kim Jung Un -- has been largely
isolated from much of the rest of the world. Subject to strict United
Nations sanctions, the country's primary supporter has been China, to
its north and west. Entry into the country is strictly limited and
communications -- TV, radio, Internet and even cell phones -- have been
tightly controlled by the communist government. And even North Korea's
nuclear capabilities are unclear. Months after North Korea's latest
underground detonation, U.S. intelligence is still unable to determine
what material actually exploded -- uranium or other radioactive
materials. Mike Chinoy, a former CNN correspondent who has visited North
Korea 15 times, said the current confusion about Pyongyang's
capabilities recall a similar episode in 1998, when U.S. spy satellites
discovered an underground complex at Kumchangri, not far from North
Korea's main nuclear facility at Yongbyon. A debate raged inside
intelligence communities about whether what the satellites saw was
evidence of a burgeoning nuclear reactor, a secret, underground nuclear
weapons facility or something else. In the end, the underground complex
turned out to be empty, Chinoy noted.
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