PDP’s loss, APC’s gain
The civil war within the ruling Peoples
Democratic Party boiled over on Tuesday when five out of the seven
aggrieved governors and some of their followers carried out a threat to
dump the party and pitch their tent with the opposition All Progressives
Congress.
This decision, some analysts argue, has
been long in coming because attempts to broker peace between President
Goodluck Jonathan and the aggrieved PDP members since September were
largely unsuccessful.
The five aggrieved governors who have
defected are: Aliyu Wamakko (Sokoto); Rabiu Kwankwaso (Kano); Rotimi
Amaechi (Rivers); Abdulfatah Ahmed (Kwara); and Murtala Nyako (Adamawa).
However, Governors Sule Lamido (Jigawa) and Babangida Aliyu (Niger) have for now, elected to remain within the PDP family.
Signs that the peace process would not
succeed were made public by the Adamawa State governor, Murtala
Nyako on
November 12 when he pronounced the peace process “dead and buried.”
He was reacting to the suspension of the
factional chairman of the party, Alhaji Kawu Baraje, its National
Secretary, Prince Olagunsoye Oyinlola, National Vice Chairman Sam Jaja
and a former National Vice Chairman (North-West), Senator Ibrahim
Kazaure by the Alhaji Bamanga Tukur-led PDP.
He explained that the PDP under the
leadership of Alhaji Bamanga Tukur shot itself in the foot by ignoring a
legitimate court order to reinstate Oyinlola and taking actions which
“killed and buried” the peace process.
Nyako, who spoke through his Director of
Press and Public Affairs, Ahmad Sajoh, said he had always known that
nothing good would come out of the discussions with a PDP where Tukur
remained the national chairman.
He said, “We always knew there was no
peace process. The peace process is dead and buried. The court had given
them a soft landing but instead of obeying the court order, look at the
step they have taken.
“It’s an ill wind that will blow nobody
any good. We know that they are not committed to peace; Bamanga Tukur
will lead this party to destruction.”
President Jonathan’s decision not to
meet with them when he returned from the United Kingdom last Sunday and a
charge by the Chairman, PDP Governors’ Forum Mr. Godswill Akpabio;
daring them to leave the party barely 24 hours later, obliterated gains
made during earlier meetings.
The decision to leave the PDP almost two
years before the 2015 elections is considered by some observers as a
gamble which has the capacity to go either way in favour of or against
the interests of the governors concerned in particular, and the PDP in
general.
Without doubt, this decision has far
reaching implications for the fortunes of the ruling PDP especially in
the North-West geo-political zone where three out of the seven aggrieved
governors hold sway.
Governors Aliyu Wamakko (Sokoto), Alhaji
Sule Lamido (Jigawa) and Musa Kwakwanso (Kano) who enjoys a
considerable following may join forces with opposition elements in
Zamfara, Katsina and Kebbi states, if things work in favour of the APC
to give the PDP a fight for votes.
Statistics of the voting population
released by the Independent National Electoral Commission after the
voter registration exercise in 2011 show that a little over 73 million
persons were registered.
Of this number, the North-West accounts
for 18,900, 543 out of which Kano has 5,135, 415 and Jigawa has
1,852,698, Sokoto accounts for 2, 065,508 voters.
Kwara State accounts for 1,115,665 voters out of a total of 7,675,369 registered voters across the North-Central states.
Rivers State where Amaechi is governor
accounts for 2,419,057 voters out of the 8,937,057 registered voters in
the South-South geo-political zone.
These figures are likely to rise or fall
depending on the number of deaths and the number of persons who will
attain the voting age of 18 by 2015.
Pundits are of the view that the trio of
Kwankwaso, Wammako and Lamido are critical to the survival of the PDP
as a political force in the North-West.
Lamido and Kwakwanso for example, have been on the Nigerian political scene since the Second Republic.
During the aborted third republic for
instance, Kwankwaso, who was Deputy Speaker of the House of
Representatives, was elected governor of Kano State in 1999 but lost
re-election in 2003 only to regain the seat in 2011.
On his part, Lamido was a pupil of the talakawa brand of politics championed by the late Mallam Aminu Kano, before emerging as National Secretary of the defunct SDP.
He, along with the likes of late Chief Solomon Lar and ex-Vice-President Alex Ekwueme were founding-fathers of the PDP.
He was appointed Minister of Foreign Affairs during Chief Olusegun Obasanjo’s first tenure (1999-2003).
Wamako was for the most part a civil servant before joining full time politics.
It may be recalled that a decision by
the Bamanga Tukur-led PDP to suspend him backfired when the then
North-West Vice-Chairman of the party, Ambassador Ibrahim Kazaure, led
other zonal executives to dissociate themselves from the suspension.
The party was forced to swallow the humble pie when it lifted the suspension.
This singular act sent a message to some
party supporters in the zone that some of their leaders were being
victimized for holding opposing views.
Wamakko’s supporters across the zone
joined their counterparts in Sokoto to welcome him back to the state
capital after a trip abroad perhaps to demonstrate the level of
acceptance he enjoys.
It is instructive to note that Wamakko’s
political calculations have always included his political godson, the
Speaker of the House of Representatives, Aminu Tambuwual.
Tambuwal has remained faithful to his
benefactor as both of them were members of the then All Nigeria Peoples
Party before defecting to the PDP.
New political re-alignments are expected
to unfold within the coming days as members of the House of
Representatives and senators are likely to rise up to be counted when
push comes to shove.
As things stand, the majority enjoyed by
the PDP in the Senate and House of Representatives will be
substantially reduced if some of the legislators toe the line of their
state governors.
In the House of Representatives for
example, the PDP stands the risks of losing at least four key principal
offices if some of their members join the APC.
Those whose positions come under
immediate threat include: the deputy Speaker, Emeka Ihedioha; Majority
leader, Mulikat Akande, Chief Whip, Ishaka Bawa; and deputy leader, Leo
Ogor.
As at the last count, the opposition APC
has 137 out of the 360 seats. The PDP and other smaller political
parties such as the Labour Party, Accord and a faction of APGA account
for the balance of 166.
The APC enjoyed a boost after the merger
of opposition political parties such as the defunct ANPP, ACN, CPC and a
faction of the APGA.
The PDP initially had 208 out of the 360
seats after the 2011 general elections, the internal crisis within the
PDP paved the way for 57 out of this number to identify with the new PDP which has now identified with the APC.
If members of the new PDP were up to 100 like a leader of the outlawed new PDP once claimed, the number of APC members in the House could rise to 237 giving the party a clear majority.
The situation is different in the Senate where 20 senators earlier identified with the New PDP before the latest round of hostilities.
Unless something dramatic happens, the
leadership structure in the Upper Legislative chamber will remain intact
as even members of the opposition political parties have not had cause
to complain.
At the national level, the race to
occupy Aso Rock is likely to be fiercely contested for, although we no
longer have a monolithic north.
The real strength of each of the governors is likely to unfold as 2014 wears on.
A number of the aggrieved governors have
been unable to conduct free, fair and credible polls in their states to
provide a true test of their individual strengths.
Four zones: North-Central, North-East, South-West and South-South-have six states each. The South-East has five.
However, the North-West has seven. This,
some pundits argue, can be a political advantage if gladiators in the
region get their acts together.
Since politics is a game of interest as
well as of numbers, in the unlikely event that the scenario of the 2011
presidential elections repeats itself, the PDP may as well rest assured
that it will have its way in 2015.
Proponents of this theory argue that not much has changed since the second republic.
They argue that the fact that the
Peoples Redemption Party held sway in the old Kano State and the Nigeria
Peoples Party took charge of the South-East and the late Chief Obafemi
Awolowo’s Unity Party of Nigeria held sway in the South-West and the old
Bendel State; did not stop the National Party of Nigeria from clinching
the Presidency.
Opponents however noted that times have
changed. Irrespective of what individual interests exist, regional
interests still play a key role in defining how the people vote.
Those who are conversant with politics
in Nigeria contend that it is too early for anyone to rightly predict
which political party will carry the day because for most politicians,
real politics has just begun.
JOHN ALECHENU writes for The Punch
