How President Jonathan Plans to Triumph at 2015 Elections - Part 1
Mr.
Aminu Gamawa, a doctoral candidate in Law at Harvard University, gives
deep and thorough analysis of President Jonathan’s possible plan for
obtaining the victory in 2015 general elections. Read the Part 1 of the
alleged strategy below [unedited]:
If
you think President Goodluck Jonathan has no plan or strategy on how to
win the 2015 presidential election you are dead wrong. I just finished
reading a document produced by Goodluck Jonathan’s political advisers
and strategists.
The
title of the document is “2013-2015: Political power and governance
road map.” It is a carefully written document that identified and
analyzed the strengths and weaknesses of President Jonathan, and his
chances of winning the 2015 presidential election, if he decides to
contest. It is the good, the bad and the ugly of how Jonathan and his
team will approach 2015.
In
the introduction, authors of the document acknowledged that a new
political order has emerged which
seriously pose a threat to the
political order created by Jonathan and his team. According to the
document, “The public perception of government, the tension and
contradictions within the PDP, extremist insurgencies and grave national
security concerns, and desperation by the opposition parties to cobble
together a mega-party are concrete indications of the struggle between
an old and a newly constituted national power arrangement.”
The
authors alleged that “there is sufficient evidence that attests to a
well-oiled grand strategy to diminish the person of Mr President and the
institution of the presidency, sabotage and impede the efficient
execution of public policies, distract and compromise key institutions,
and ensure a chaotic and unpredictable outcome in the 2015 general
elections. Because these forces are critically entrenched in the key
organs of the PDP, in the NASS, among the ranks of the party’s
governors, in the media, within dominant ethnic and regional political
formations and violent non-state actors, this struggle will become more
acute and intense as the nation plots its political graph and trajectory
to the 2015 general elections.”
The
document started with a Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and
Threats (SWOT) analysis of the person of President Jonathan and the “new
national power center he has constructed.” The following is directly
from the document.
Strengths
-
Power of incumbency and utilization of governance machinery, especially
the careful and legal deployment of its propaganda and coercive
apparatuses
- Secure financial resources base and leveraging on strategic media assets
-
Formidable political apparatus – a reformed, disciplined and tightly
controlled PDP – with significant presence in all the 36 states and
dominant control over 23 states
-
Deep-rooted, nation-wide support structures in the shape of GSG, N2G
and literally speaking, hundreds of youth, women and regional affiliates
controlled and supervised by the more dominant support structures
- Effective and efficient implementation of the transformation agenda in critical national sectors
- High personal likeability rating which has to be further strengthened and deepened
-
When chips are down immense support will be secured from the National
Council of State by ex-leaders who value continuity and order over
instability and chaos
Weaknesses
- A less than forceful Presidential presence and infective deployment and application of presidential power
-
The perceived appropriation of presidential advocacy space by exuberant
partisans and fanatical supporters who project a wrong image of the
presidency as a regional agenda. This situation tends to alienate
moderate political forces across the country whose sense of co-ownership
of the presidency appears diminished
-
A perceived sense of distance between the Presidency and the PDP that
has opened the space for internal dissention and outright rebellion by
party stalwarts. This sense of disinterest and disengagement has
engendered a culture of apology among Presidential spokespersons
whenever matters connecting Mr President and the party appear on the
public sphere
-
Following on the above, the reality of Mr President being the leaders
of the nation and the LEADER OF THE PARTY is not sufficiently grounded
-
A technocratic cabinet that is not fully politically engaged,
especially in media advocacy and community-wide outreach programmes.
This unhelpful situation out burdens a handful regime insiders in their
constant defense of The Presidency and the Transformation agenda
- A presidential communication strategy that is weak on proactive propaganda and rapid response
-
Inability of Presidential power strategists to manage the relationship
between The Presidency and the NASS to the degree that the later,
particularly the HOR, which is dominated by the PDP, appears as an
outfit and mouthpiece of the opposition
-
Problematic relationship between the Presidency and some former heads
of State when, in actuality, they should constitute the bedrock of his
support
Opportunities
- Exploiting
the current fractured state of the NGF for maximum political advantage
by strengthening the co-operative faction and sustaining the pressure on
recalcitrant PDP governors
-
Exploiting the opportunities inherent in the putative fracturing of the
Northern Governors’ Forum by strengthening co-operative governors and
sustaining pressure, directly and through different front organizations,
on the recalcitrant governors
-
Playing on the political ambitions of regional champions, especially in
the North, to the degree and extent that no unanimity of political
purpose and cohesive agenda is ever achieved
-
The APC may appear as a formidable threat initially but substantive
opportunities will abound when ambitions and egos clash among its
principal promoters. Strategic planning should factor in the scenario in
the designing of intervention blueprint
-
Exploiting the immense public opinion opportunities in the current war
against terror in the North, especially given the steady successes thus
far recorded by the NSA, and the military high command through the JTF
-
Utilizing the social and economic empowering and inclusive space
provided by SURE-P, particularly its integrated community empowerment
schemes, to advertise and show case the populist and pro-people
orientation of the government
Threats
There
are sufficient grounds to believe that the NASS continues to pose a
threat to the effective exercise of Presidential power in the areas of
budget-making processes and the on-going amendments of the constitution
with specific reference to devolution of power and tenure of elected
officials
-
Formidable forces in both the NGF and the NNGF continue to pose
significant threat to the political calculations and choices open to Mr
President
- Regional alliances among dominant ethnic blocks may constitute a threat to the political choices open to Mr President
- If the APC does not implode along the way, it will constitute a real threat to the PDP and Mr President
-
Extremist insurgencies in the North and the burgeoning oil theft in the
Niger Delta are already sources of concern and worry; the way and
manner these issues are dealt with will determine the degree to which
they will pose a threat down the line
-
Regrettably, the current, crisis-ridden state of the PDP poses
significant threat to the realization of the party’s political ambition
in 2015, including that of Mr President.
The
SWOT analysis above is just a small excerpt from the document. The
document was written after the New PDP was created but before the G5 and
members of House of Representatives defected to APC. The rest of the
document is an in-depth analysis of what the PDP and President Jonathan
should do to win the 2015 elections. This include changing perception of
Nigerians through propaganda, establishment of a political intelligence
unit, reforming PDP, fund mobilization strategies, causing political
division in the North and South West, appointing politicians with
grassroots support as ministers, deploying SURE-P for political
purposes, using the civil society organizations and professional
organizations, increasing the number of registered voters in
South-South, North-central and South-East, and reducing the number of
voters in the North and South West, etc.
To be continued…
READ MORE: http://news.naij.com/55600.html
READ MORE: http://news.naij.com/55600.html