2015: Why Jonathan may lose as an incumbent - By Bayo Olupohunda
For those who are upbeat about the
chances of the incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan winning re-election
if he decides to run, I have bad news for them. The President may not
only lose in 2015, he could lose by a landslide even with the incumbency
factor perceived to be in his favour. Let’s even consider a massive
defeat of an incumbent impossibility; he could still be edged out by a
narrow margin. Indeed all evidence point to the first shocking defeat of
an incumbent in a presidential election in the country. For the first
time ever, it seems the incumbency effect may not matter. While I
acknowledge the usual arguments about the incumbent advantage; 2015 may
yet prove to be an exception.
Why do I think so? If the supporters of
the President can just sit back and remove the scale of sycophancy from
their eyes and honestly assess the situation in the country, they will
see that in a free and fair election, the President does not stand a
chance. I think they may be in for a rude shock. Those who fancy an easy
win for Jonathan may have failed to appreciate the enormity of the
challenges stacked against his re-election. But supporters of the
administration seem to have been living in denial all this while. For
them the President’s victory is a foregone conclusion. Not quite. Their
optimism seems buoyed by the gale of endorsements by
some phony groups
and intimidated Peoples Democratic Party governors who seem not to have
any choice anyway. Supporters of the administration have also trumpeted
what they considered to be some achievements of the President. But it
appears the so-called achievements are known only to them alone. As for
Nigerians, it has been a case of the more you look, the less you see
when it comes to assessing this administration. In the ultimate decider
will be Nigerian voters.
Despite the huge arsenal of funds and
state machinery at the disposal of the Jonathan presidency, politics and
life often have other plans. This is what recent elections have taught
us. The reality is, incumbents can be defeated. It may happen in 2015 –
in a few months from now, President Jonathan will find out whether he
will be keeping his job. For most voters, their choice will ultimately
come down to how they expect either a new president or Jonathan to run
the affairs of our country in the next four years. Unfortunately for
Jonathan, he does not seem to have much of a presidential record, and a
review of it leaves little doubt that Nigerians may want to fire him.
Let me make it clear for people reading
this, especially supporters of this administration, the laziest thing
will be to dismiss my thoughts as the ranting of a hater of the
President or an opposition hatchet job. Far from it, I am completely
apolitical. One does not need a crystal ball to see the realities of why
President Jonathan should be preparing his handover note. Or shouldn’t
he? Here are my reasons. The first is in the changing demographics.
Increasingly as we progress in our democratic experience, it is becoming
clear that it is the voters that will ultimately determine the fate of
candidates.
In the past, defeating incumbents was
unthinkable. Incumbents held what proverbialy could be called the yam
and the knife – but not anymore. We have the situation where sitting
Presidents deploy state machinery to induce and coerce all electoral
institutions. In recent governorship elections incumbents have been
beaten while some held on to their post by a thin margin. It is no
longer easy to steal the people’s mandate. Now if elections are not won
by ballot, one can be sure the courts will overturn any stolen mandate.
The trend will surely continue in 2015. If the situation persists,
President Jonathan may be Nigeria’s first one-term President. Not even
the rallies being held across the country in support of the President
may help the re-election. In 2015, the President will be assessed by his
performance in the last five years. A look at history has shown that if
President Jonathan loses, he will not be the first incumbent to do so.
There have been nearly a dozen one term Presidents who ran for second
terms but were denied by voters, in the United States, for example,
there have been three one-term presidents since World War II. The most
recent one-term president who lost his re-election bid was George H.W.
Bush, a Republican who lost to Democrat Bill Clinton in 1992. Republican
George H.W. Bush was the 41st President of the United States, serving
from 1989 to 1993.
He lost a campaign for re-election in
1992 to Democrat, Bill Clinton. Bush’s official White House biography
describes his re-election loss this way: “Despite unprecedented
popularity from this military and diplomatic triumph, Bush was unable to
withstand discontent at home from a faltering economy and continued
high deficit spending.’’ Though some of the one-term US presidents lost
due to the prevailing economic, political and social factors of their
time; those factors will pale into insignificance when juxtaposed with
the failures of the Jonathan presidency. If any of the US presidents had
been Jonathan, they would not have even made the mid-term election as
they would have been impeached. Unfortunately, we have legislative arms
that are largely part of the rot.
But in spite of ongoing propaganda,
Nigerians seem to have become wiser—more discerning. They may express
their displeasure with this administration in 2015. I have written in
this column that the next election may yet be a protest vote by a people
tired of this administration’s arrogance, contempt and disdain for
their welfare as a people. What will be the greatest obstacle in the
path of Jonathan’s re-election is his attitude to corruption. Needless
to say that Nigerians have become embarrassed by how corruption scandals
at home and abroad have taken a toll on their country’s reputation.
What is worse is Jonathan’s denial of
corruption as the cause of our underdevelopment. In several public
statements, the President had declared, much to the bewilderment of
Nigerians, that corruption is not Nigeria’s problem. The President must
know that Nigerians are seriously angry about his ‘body language’ to
corruption when allegations of corruption continue to taint his
government. This President has too much baggage going into an election
year. They will certainly hurt his re-election chances.
For example, Nigerians are scandalised by
the President’s refusal to probe the ongoing cash-for-arm scandals
rocking his administration. That he has continued to maintain silence
even as these allegations continue to taint the integrity of his
administration is unnerving to Nigerians. Meanwhile, under this
administration, all the agencies meant to fight corruption have also
gone comatose. Perhaps it is not a coincidence that this is happening
under his Presidency. The lack of leadership and the damage inflicted on
Nigerians living in the North-East by the administration’s delay to
confront growing insecurity has had its attendant consequences. The
President is going into the election as a largely unpopular candidate.
Can Nigerians afford four more years of Jonathan? Something tells me
that we may have seen the last of the Jonathan’s presidency. I will be
surprised if he is re-elected.
- Follow Bayo on twitter: @bayoolupohunda
