Fellow Nigerians, you must be wondering what this title is
all about. Please, calm down, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, one of
Nigeria’s iconic politicians, is not about to dump his party, APC, for
PDP, the party he fought hard with others to sack from power just last
year.
The reason for bringing PDP into this article which largely
concerns the Tinubu conundrum is very simple and straight-forward. PDP
has suffered calamities upon catastrophes since General Muhammadu Buhari
sacked President Goodluck Jonathan from office. It is hard to imagine,
or believe, that a party that held Nigeria by the jugular for 16 solid
years could attain meltdown so soon and almost disappear into oblivion.
One
would have expected PDP, despite its electoral misfortune, to provide a
formidable opposition to APC and keep President Buhari on his toes but
that has not been the case. APC has wasted no time in sending PDP to an
early grave by throwing poisonous darts at it from every angle.
The
war against corruption has been a most veritable weapon with stupendous
impact used by APC to scatter most of the PDP apparatchik to the winds.
The strategy was to weaken them by showcasing the humongous corruption
that was perpetrated and perpetuated during their reign. The PDP brand
was thus obliterated in a jiffy. Many of their bigwigs confessed to
nefarious and horrendous crimes of looting and brigandage. They coughed
up or vomited incredible sums of cash.
All entreaties and shouts of a
vengeful witch-hunt against President Buhari fell on deaf ears. The
more they screamed the more they were horse-whipped into submission and
made to weep bitterly.
As if that was not bad enough, PDP engaged
itself in a war of attrition and became a house divided against itself.
It was only a matter of time before it crumbled like the proverbial
cookie does. Today, PDP has become its own worst enemy with the
brickbats being thrown at one another by members of what used to be
touted as the biggest political party in Africa. How are the mighty
fallen!
The aim of my piece this week is to attempt what I did in
2014 when I wrote a permutative article titled ‘In Search of
Mathematicians’. That was how I predicted a win for Buhari when many
pundits still doubted such possibility. I intend to do so again in this
column by painting a picture of what to expect in 2019. If you think
that year is still far away, perish the thought.
The battle for
the next Nigerian Presidential election started as soon as the last one
was lost and won. The hurly-burly of the elections had not yet settled
down when the potential gladiators picked up their gauntlets in
readiness for the next combat.
The ruling party APC has
suffered its own casualties as a result of its self-immolating wars of
anticipation. What do I mean? The new men of power are already thinking
ahead and wondering who may be too ambitious within their own fold. Any
of such recalcitrant and ambitious rebels must be cut down to size, no
matter his or her contribution to past victory and glory. Without
mincing words, the Senate President, Bukola Saraki, is the first victim
and he has suffered massive collateral damage on account of suspicion.
APC itself has suffered almost fatally in the process. The only thing
holding it together for now is the fact that it is the party in power
and thus presumably has limitless opportunities to distribute largesse
to the army of party operatives and their cronies.
By this time
next year, as this government enters its third year in power, reality
would begin to set in and President Buhari will begin to discover and
see original animals in human skin.
I foresee and predict a
re-alignment of political forces from 2017. President Buhari will be
encouraged and persuaded to run a second term by those who are currently
profiting from his government. It is only normal and it is their
legitimate right. Nothing stops the President from seeking a re-election
within our Constitution. The only snag is that many politicians are
going to gang up against him because they see him as an outsider in
politics who has benefitted from their massive support but in return has
been messing things up for them.
If the President remains
stoically stubborn and refuses to play ball with politicians, he would
have to fight dirty to win his ticket. It seems to me that he would have
to do everything to retain the loyalty of one man by all means, Asiwaju
Bola Ahmed Tinubu. It is almost impossible for any candidate to become
President of Nigeria without the overwhelming support of the Yoruba and
their current generalissimo, Tinubu, in particular.
Tinubu
derives his stranglehold on power from his iron grip on Lagos. Lagos is a
microcosm of Nigeria. Whoever controls Lagos owns the commercial
nerve-centre of Nigeria, just like the California of America. Tinubu has
been very lucky in that his anointed candidates, Babatunde Raji Fashola
and Akinwunmi Ambode, have been very cerebrally successful. The current
Governor of Lagos State, Mr Akinwunmi Ambode, is already set, after
just one year in office, to surpass all expectations.
According
to impeccable sources, Buhari may therefore be forced to risk and pick
Tinubu as his running-mate if push comes to shove. Tinubu’s protégé,
Professor Yemi Osinbajo, is the current Vice President, who comes with
intimidating credentials but may not have enough political muscle to
deliver enough votes to the kitty. The dilemma for Buhari is whether he
should buck the trend set by his predecessors, starting from Shehu
Shagari, and jettison his Vice President, especially when a cordial and
mutually respectful relationship exists between them. In addition,
Osinbajo has been doing exceedingly well and he is seen as one of the
few shining lights of this Administration.
There is also the fact
that Prof Osinbajo is a highly regarded and esteemed senior Christian
figure and the President has needed him to silence those detractors that
consider him an Islamic fundamentalist.
However, I believe that the
controversy that could ensue from a potentially volatile Muslim/Muslim
ticket may have been fixed substantially. Firstly, there is a precedent
set by Chief Moshood Kashimawo Abiola the acclaimed winner of the 1993
elections who picked a fellow Muslim, Alhaji Baba Gana Kingibe, as his
running-mate and still won in Nigeria’s freest and fairest election to
date. Secondly, though Tinubu is a devout Muslim, his beloved wife is a
hard-core Christian and a top-notch member of the same Redeemed
Christian Church of God as the Vice President. Thirdly, there is the
fact that Tinubu supported a Christian, Akinwunmi Ambode, as his
anointed candidate for Governor of Lagos State, a deft move calculated
to pacify those who may wish to foment religious crisis and
conflagration then and in the future.
Tinubu is believed by many
to have served Nigeria meritoriously and selflessly by suppressing his
own personal ambition for that of others and it is believed that the
kingmaker deserves a chunky reward the next time around if he so
desires. He is acknowledged as being one of the most knowledgeable
leaders in Nigeria today and a lot of people feel that his background in
business and politics could bail Nigeria out of the economic quagmire
of the moment. He is known to be a practical politician who knows how to
make the world better for most people.
If the hawks succeed in
getting Buhari to snub Tinubu because of his perceived threat to the
President himself, the APC may split like PDP did before the collapse of
the Jonathan Presidency.
One potential candidate is hovering in the
wings and that is the Turaki of Adamawa, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, who has
never hidden the fact that he wants the Presidency by all means. My next
permutation is that the former Vice President and Tinubu who are two of
the three most powerful and influential politicians in APC today (the
third is Dr Abubakar Bukola Saraki with his firm control of the Senate)
may combine forces to thwart a Buhari re-election bid. They have been
old allies since the time of Major General Shehu Musa Yar’Adua. If they
join forces, it may therefore spell doom for those seeking the
re-election of President Buhari.
After the seeming lull in the
Buhari-Tinubu love, it seems the recent appointments given to some of
Tinubu’s acolytes appear designed to assuage his feeling. But would this
be sufficient to bury the combustive ambition of a man who believes he
still has so much to give to his country?
The third option which also
involves Tinubu in the mix is one on which for a variety of reasons
Buhari chooses not to run again. Without doubt, there are several other
forces contending for power in case Buhari decides not to seek
re-election. In this category, Tinubu’s name still features prominently.
No one can deny the ability of Tinubu to transform Nigeria the way he
did in Lagos. It is presumed that Buhari may generously want to pay
Tinubu back for the support he gave him. He may also want to leave a
lasting legacy and shed the toga of an ethnic jingoist by handing over
to a Southerner. If this happens, I foresee the visionary Governor of
Kaduna State, Nasir El-Rufai, a core Buhari loyalist, becoming Tinubu’s
running-mate, notwithstanding that this is another Muslim/Muslim ticket.
Many APC loyalists believe this combination may fly.
There is a
fourth option and this is coming from the direction of PDP. The theory
here is that PDP can still spring a surprise on Buhari and pay him back
in his own coin. The PDP apologists believe the North has lost more
under Buhari despite allocating many political appointments to the
region. They are of the opinion that former President Jonathan did more
for them and gave them access and respect than their own man Buhari who
they accuse of being standoffish. This is the reason that many
Northerners, apart from his kinsmen in the South South, have become the
biggest promoter of PDP.
However, I believe that the
controversy that could ensue from a potentially volatile Muslim/Muslim
ticket may have been fixed substantially. Firstly, there is a precedent
set by Chief Moshood Kashimawo Abiola the acclaimed winner of the 1993
elections who picked a fellow Muslim, Alhaji Baba Gana Kingibe, as his
running-mate and still won in Nigeria’s freest and fairest election to
date. Secondly, though Tinubu is a devout Muslim, his beloved wife is a
hard-core Christian and a top-notch member of the same Redeemed
Christian Church of God as the Vice President. Thirdly, there is the
fact that Tinubu supported a Christian, Akinwunmi Ambode, as his
anointed candidate for Governor of Lagos State, a deft move calculated
to pacify those who may wish to foment religious crisis and
conflagration then and in the future.
Tinubu is believed by many
to have served Nigeria meritoriously and selflessly by suppressing his
own personal ambition for that of others and it is believed that the
kingmaker deserves a chunky reward the next time around if he so
desires. He is acknowledged as being one of the most knowledgeable
leaders in Nigeria today and a lot of people feel that his background in
business and politics could bail Nigeria out of the economic quagmire
of the moment. He is known to be a practical politician who knows how to
make the world better for most people.
If the hawks succeed in
getting Buhari to snub Tinubu because of his perceived threat to the
President himself, the APC may split like PDP did before the collapse of
the Jonathan Presidency.
One potential candidate is hovering in the
wings and that is the Turaki of Adamawa, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, who has
never hidden the fact that he wants the Presidency by all means. My next
permutation is that the former Vice President and Tinubu who are two of
the three most powerful and influential politicians in APC today (the
third is Dr Abubakar Bukola Saraki with his firm control of the Senate)
may combine forces to thwart a Buhari re-election bid. They have been
old allies since the time of Major General Shehu Musa Yar’Adua. If they
join forces, it may therefore spell doom for those seeking the
re-election of President Buhari.
After the seeming lull in the
Buhari-Tinubu love, it seems the recent appointments given to some of
Tinubu’s acolytes appear designed to assuage his feeling. But would this
be sufficient to bury the combustive ambition of a man who believes he
still has so much to give to his country?
The third option which
also involves Tinubu in the mix is one on which for a variety of reasons
Buhari chooses not to run again. Without doubt, there are several other
forces contending for power in case Buhari decides not to seek
re-election. In this category, Tinubu’s name still features prominently.
No one can deny the ability of Tinubu to transform Nigeria the way he
did in Lagos. It is presumed that Buhari may generously want to pay
Tinubu back for the support he gave him. He may also want to leave a
lasting legacy and shed the toga of an ethnic jingoist by handing over
to a Southerner. If this happens, I foresee the visionary Governor of
Kaduna State, Nasir El-Rufai, a core Buhari loyalist, becoming Tinubu’s
running-mate, notwithstanding that this is another Muslim/Muslim ticket.
Many APC loyalists believe this combination may fly.
There is a
fourth option and this is coming from the direction of PDP. The theory
here is that PDP can still spring a surprise on Buhari and pay him back
in his own coin. The PDP apologists believe the North has lost more
under Buhari despite allocating many political appointments to the
region. They are of the opinion that former President Jonathan did more
for them and gave them access and respect than their own man Buhari who
they accuse of being standoffish. This is the reason that many
Northerners, apart from his kinsmen in the South South, have become the
biggest promoter of PDP.
In case you think Jonathan is dead
and buried politically, perish the thought! He still holds the biggest
ace in PDP. In fact, many in PDP today see him as their best candidate
in 2019 because some of his transformation agenda are beginning to come
to fruition. They are hoping and banking on Buhari becoming so unpopular
that Jonathan would be sorely missed by Nigerians who would practically
beg him to come back.
The rising profile and the promotion
of Jonathan in the international community is part of that systematic
way of re-polishing, repackaging, redefining and preparing him for a
return to power. Every attempt to smear him with a tar brush would be
rebuffed by his die-hard loyalists who see Buhari as someone trying to
kill any future role for Jonathan as Nigerian President. They are
totally committed to ensuring that Jonathan is well protected between
now and next year when serious politicking would have reached a
crescendo again. The hope is that as a former civilian President, he can
bounce back to power like President Mathieu Kerekou did in Benin
Republic, when he returned in 1996 after quitting in 1991.
Who knows tomorrow?
Written by Dele Momodu
